We’re obviously in a period of transformation for computing and networking, and it’s equally obvious that HP is intent on improving its position in the market through this transition. They’ve made two recent announcements that illustrate what their strategy could be, and it could mean some interesting dynamics in both computing and networking over the next couple years.
The first step was HP’s acquisition of Aruba Networks, a leading player in the enterprise WiFi space. If you’ve been following my blog for any period of time you know that I believe that mobile worker empowerment (point-of-activity empowerment) is critical for enterprises to take the next step in productivity enhancement. That, in turn, is critical in driving an uptick in technology spending. We’ve had three periods in the past when IT spending has grown faster than GDP, and each was driven by a new productivity dynamic. This could be the next one in my view.
WiFi is important to this developing empowerment thesis for two reasons. First, all workers who are potential targets for mobile empowerment spend some of their time on company premises where WiFi is available, and over 75% spend nearly all their mobile time on-prem. That means that you can hit a large population of workers with a WiFi mobile productivity approach. Second, the cost of WiFi empowerment is lower than empowerment via 4G, and you can always spread a WiFi strategy over 4G if it proves useful to do so.
Mobile productivity obviously means getting to the worker, so there has to be a communications ingredient, and that’s likely the basis for the HP move with Aruba. It also requires a new computing model, something that turns applications from driving the worker through fixed workflows to responding to work events as they occur. This new computing model is very suitable for cloud implementation, public or private, because it’s highly dynamic, highly agile. Given that HP wants (like everyone else) to be a kingpin of the cloud, it makes sense to be able to link a cloud story with a WiFi/empowerment story.
The second announcement involves NFV, which may seem a strange bedfellow for worker WiFi and empowerment but isn’t. I’ve commented before that my model says that optimum NFV deployment would create the largest single source of new data centers globally, and could create the largest source of new server deployments too (the model can’t be definitive on that point yet). That’s certainly enough reason for a server giant like HP to want to have an NFV position. Now, HP is announcing what’s perhaps the most critical win in the SDN/NFV space.
Telefonica has long been my candidate for the most innovative of the major network operators, and they’ve picked HP to build their UNICA infrastructure, foundation for Telefonica’s future use of NFV and SDN. I think Telefonica is the thought leader in this space, the operator who has the clearest vision of where NFV and SDN have to go in order for operators to justify that “optimum NFV deployment” that drives all that server opportunity. They are very likely going to write the book on NFV.
And HP is now going to be taking dictation, and in fact perhaps being a contributing author. HP is one of those NFV players who have a lot more substance than they have visibility with respect to NFV (as opposed to most NFV vendors who are all sizzle and no substance). I’ve seen a lot of their material and it’s by far the most impressive documentation on NFV available from anyone. That suggests HP has a lot more under the hood to write about, even if they haven’t learned to sing effectively yet.
There are dozens of NFV tests and trials underway, most of which are going to prove only that NFV can work, not that NFV can make a business case. Operators are now realizing that and are working to build a better business case (as I’ve reported earlier) but many of the trials are simply not going to be effective in doing that. The ones most likely to succeed are the ones sponsored by operators who understand the full potential of NFV and SDN and who are supporting tests of the business case and not just the technology. Who, more than Telefonica as the NFV thought leader, can be expected to do that?
HP has just sat itself at the head of the NFV table because they’re linked with the operator initiative most likely to advance NFV’s business case. And everyone in the operator community knows this in their heart; I told a big US Tier One two years ago that Telefonica was the most innovative operator and they didn’t even disagree. So imagine the value of working with an operator of that stature on defining the best model to meet the NFV business case. It just doesn’t get any better.
Well, maybe it does. NFV is not a “new” technology, it’s an evolution of the cloud to add a dimension of management and dynamism to cloud infrastructure. The lessons of NFV can be applied to cloud computing and thus can be applied to mobile productivity. For network operators, cloud computing services that are aimed at the mobile worker’s productivity would be far more profitable and credible than those aimed elsewhere. WiFi and 4G integration with dynamic applications, created and managed using NFV tools, could be the rest of that next-wave business case that could drive the next tech growth cycle. With proper exploitation of Aruba and an interweaving of NFV tools honed in the Telefonica deal, HP could build a new compute model.
The operative word as always is “could”. HP has thrown down a very large gauntlet here, one that broad IT rivals like Cisco, IBM, and even Oracle can hardly ignore. They’ve also put NFV players like Alcatel-Lucent on notice. They’ve made a lot of enemies who will be eager to point out any deficiencies in the HP vision. And deficiencies in vision are in the eyes of the beholder in a very literal sense. HP has, like many companies, failed to promote itself to its own full potential. That may not have mattered in a race where all the runners are still milling around the starting line. If you make your own start, clean and early, you darn sure want to make sure everyone in the stands know you’re running, and leading. The question for HP now is whether they can get that singing voice I’ve mentioned into order, and make themselves as known as they are good.